Environmental sources of infection can play a primary role in shaping epidemiological dynamics; however, the relative impact of environmental transmission on host‐pathogen systems is rarely estimated. We developed and fit a spatially explicit model of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in wild boar to estimate what proportion of carcass‐based transmission is contributing to the low‐level persistence of ASFV in Eastern European wild boar. Our model was developed based on ecological insight and data from field studies of ASFV and wild boar in Eastern Poland. We predicted that carcass‐based transmission would play a substantial role in persistence, especially in low‐density host populations where contact rates are low. By fitting the model to outbreak data using approximate Bayesian computation, we inferred that between 53% and 66% of transmission events were carcass‐based that is, transmitted through contact of a live host with a contaminated carcass. Model fitting and sensitivity analyses showed that the frequency of carcass‐based transmission increased with decreasing host density, suggesting that management policies should emphasize the removal of carcasses and consider how reductions in host densities may drive carcass‐based transmission. Sensitivity analyses also demonstrated that carcass‐based transmission is necessary for the autonomous persistence of ASFV under realistic parameters. Autonomous persistence through direct transmission alone required high host densities; otherwise re‐introduction of virus periodically was required for persistence when direct transmission probabilities were moderately high. We quantify the relative role of different persistence mechanisms for a low‐prevalence disease using readily collected ecological data and viral surveillance data. Understanding how the frequency of different transmission mechanisms vary across host densities can help identify optimal management strategies across changing ecological conditions.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne virus in the family Bunyaviridiae that has spread throughout continental Africa to Madagascar and the Arabian Peninsula. The establishment of RVFV in North America would have serious consequences for human and animal health in addition to a significant economic impact on the livestock industry. Published and unpublished data on RVFV vector competence, vertebrate host competence, and mosquito feeding patterns from the United States were combined to quantitatively implicate mosquito vectors and vertebrate hosts that may be important to RVFV transmission in the United States. A viremia-vector competence relationship based on published mosquito transmission studies was used to calculate a vertebrate host competence index which was then combined with mosquito blood feeding patterns to approximate the vector and vertebrate amplification fraction, defined as the relative contribution of the mosquito or vertebrate host to pathogen transmission. Results implicate several Aedes spp. mosquitoes and vertebrates in the order Artiodactyla as important hosts for RVFV transmission in the U.S. Moreover, this study identifies critical gaps in knowledge which would be necessary to complete a comprehensive analysis identifying the different contributions of mosquitoes and vertebrates to potential RVFV transmission in the U.S. Future research should focus on (1) the dose-dependent relationship between viremic exposure and the subsequent infectiousness of key mosquito species, (2) evaluation of vertebrate host competence for RVFV among North American mammal species, with particular emphasis on the order Artiodactyla, and (3) identification of areas with a high risk for RVFV introduction so data on local vector and host populations can help generate geographically appropriate amplification fraction estimates.

The global invasion of West Nile virus, chikungunya virus and Zika virus in the past two decades suggests an increasing rate of mosquito-borne virus (arbovirus) dispersal. Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an arbovirus identified as a high-consequence threat to the United States (USA) because of the severe economic and health consequences associated with disease. Numerous studies demonstrate that the USA is receptive to RVFV transmission based on the widespread presence of competent mosquito species and vertebrate species. In this study, the potential pathways and locations of RVFV entry into the USA were quantitatively estimated to support a priori surveillance and RVFV prevention strategies. International movement data, ecological data and epidemiological data were combined to estimate the number of RVFV-infected mosquitoes entering the USA. Results suggest infected humans travelling by plane pose the highest risk of importing RVFV into the USA, followed by the unintentional transport of infected adult mosquitoes by ship and airplane. Furthermore, New York, New York, Washington DC, Atlanta, Georgia, and Houston, Texas, are implicated as the most likely regions of RVFV entry. Results are interpreted and discussed to support the prediction and mitigation of RVFV spread to the USA.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to threaten global animal health and agricultural biosecurity. Mitigating the establishment of ASFV in the United States (U.S.) is contingent on (1) the identification of arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts that are capable of viral maintenance and transmission in the U.S. and (2) knowledge of vector-host associations that may permit transmission. We aggregated data on vector competence, host competence and tick–host associations by systematic review of published articles and collection records to identify species that may support the invasion of ASFV in the U.S. Three species of competent soft ticks occur in the U.S., Ornithodoros coriaceus , Ornithodoros turicata , and Ornithodoros puertoricensis , however, vector competence for the majority of soft ticks in the U.S. remains unknown. Three species of competent vertebrate hosts currently occur in the U.S.: domestic pigs ( Sus scrofa domesticus ), feral hogs ( Sus scrofa ), and common warthogs ( Phacochoerus africanus ). Hierarchical hazard categories based on vector competence, tick–host contact rates, and vector abundance were used to semiquantitatively rank U.S. soft tick species by their relative risk for contributing to ASFV transmission to identify which soft tick species are a priority for future studies. High-risk vector and host species identified in this study can be used to focus ASFV risk assessments in the U.S., guide targeted surveillance and control strategies, and proactively prepare for an ASFV incursion event. Results indicate O. coriaceus , O. turicata , and O. puertoricensis demonstrate the highest relative risk for contributing to ASFV transmission in the U.S., however, many gaps in knowledge exist preventing the full evaluation of at least 30 soft tick species in the U.S. Further study is required to identify soft tick vectors that interact with feral swine populations, elucidate vector competence, and further understand the biology of soft tick species.