Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.
The Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is an open, multi-institutional project providing a strategy for developing comprehensive Earth System Models (ESMs) with highly flexible complexity. The first version of the MESSy infrastructure and process submodels, mainly focusing on atmospheric chemistry, has been successfully coupled to an atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) expanding it into an Atmospheric Chemistry GCM (AC-GCM) for nudged simulations and into a Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) for climate simulations. <br><br> Here, we present the second development cycle of MESSy, which comprises (1) an improved and extended infrastructure for the basemodel independent coupling of process-submodels, (2) new, highly valuable diagnostic capabilities for the evaluation with observational data and (3) an improved atmospheric chemistry setup. With the infrastructural changes, we place the headstone for further model extensions from a CCM towards a comprehensive ESM. The new diagnostic submodels will be used for regular re-evaluations of the continuously further developing model system. The updates of the chemistry setup are briefly evaluated
Abstract.The new Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) describes atmospheric chemistry and meteorological processes in a modular framework, following strict coding standards. It has been coupled to the ECHAM5 general circulation model, which has been slightly modified for this purpose. A 90-layer model setup up to 0.01 hPa was used at spectral T42 resolution to simulate the lower and middle atmosphere. With the high vertical resolution the model simulates the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The model meteorology has been tested to check the influence of the changes to ECHAM5 and the radiation interactions with the new representation of atmospheric composition. In the simulations presented here a Newtonian relaxation technique was applied in the tropospheric part of the domain to weakly nudge the model towards the analysed meteorology during the period 1998-2005. This allows an efficient and direct evaluation with satellite and in-situ data. It is shown that the tropospheric wave forcing of the stratosphere in the model suffices to reproduce major stratospheric warming events leading e.g. to the vortex split over Antarctica in 2002. Characteristic features such as dehydration and denitrification caused by the sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud particles and ozone depletion during winter and spring are simulated well, although ozone loss in the lower polar stratosphere is slightly underestimated. The model realistically simulates stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes as indicated by comparisons with satellite and in situ measurements. The evaluation of tropospheric chemistry presented here focuses on the distributions of ozone, hydroxyl radicals, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen compounds. In spite of minor shortcomings, mostly related to the relatively Correspondence to: P. Jöckel (firstname.lastname@example.org) coarse T42 resolution and the neglect of inter-annual changes in biomass burning emissions, the main characteristics of the trace gas distributions are generally reproduced well. The MESSy submodels and the ECHAM5/MESSy1 model output are available through the internet on request.
Abstract. Three types of reference simulations, as recommended by the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), have been performed with version 2.51 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts -Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model: hindcast simulations , hindcast simulations with specified dynamics , i.e. nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and combined hindcast and projection simulations . The manuscript summarizes the updates of the model system and details the different model set-ups used, including the on-line calculated diagnostics. Simulations have been performed with two different nudging setups, with and without interactive tropospheric aerosol, and with and without a coupled ocean model. Two different vertical resolutions have been applied. The on-line calculated sources and sinks of reactive species are quantified and a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective is provided as a quality check of the data. The focus is on the intercomparison of the different model set-ups. The simulation data will become publicly available via CCMI and the Climate and Environmental Retrieval and Archive (CERA) database of the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). This manuscript is intended to serve as an extensive reference for further analyses of the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) simulations.
Aims Ambient air pollution is a major health risk, leading to respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. A recent Global Exposure Mortality Model, based on an unmatched number of cohort studies in many countries, provides new hazard ratio functions, calling for re-evaluation of the disease burden. Accordingly, we estimated excess cardiovascular mortality attributed to air pollution in Europe. Methods and results The new hazard ratio functions have been combined with ambient air pollution exposure data to estimate the impacts in Europe and the 28 countries of the European Union (EU-28). The annual excess mortality rate from ambient air pollution in Europe is 790 000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 645 000–934 000], and 659 000 (95% CI 537 000–775 000) in the EU-28. Between 40% and 80% are due to cardiovascular events, which dominate health outcomes. The upper limit includes events attributed to other non-communicable diseases, which are currently not specified. These estimates exceed recent analyses, such as the Global Burden of Disease for 2015, by more than a factor of two. We estimate that air pollution reduces the mean life expectancy in Europe by about 2.2 years with an annual, attributable per capita mortality rate in Europe of 133/100 000 per year. Conclusion We provide new data based on novel hazard ratio functions suggesting that the health impacts attributable to ambient air pollution in Europe are substantially higher than previously assumed, though subject to considerable uncertainty. Our results imply that replacing fossil fuels by clean, renewable energy sources could substantially reduce the loss of life expectancy from air pollution.
The self-cleaning or oxidation capacity of the atmosphere is principally controlled by hydroxyl (OH) radicals in the troposphere. Hydroxyl has primary (P) and secondary (S) sources, the former mainly through the photodissociation of ozone, the latter through OH recycling in radical reaction chains. We used the recent Mainz Organics Mechanism (MOM) to advance volatile organic carbon (VOC) chemistry in the general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) and show that S is larger than previously assumed. By including emissions of a large number of primary VOC, and accounting for their complete breakdown and intermediate products, MOM is mass-conserving and calculates substantially higher OH reactivity from VOC oxidation compared to predecessor models. Whereas previously P and S were found to be of similar magnitude, the present work indicates that S may be twice as large, mostly due to OH recycling in the free troposphere. Further, we find that nighttime OH formation may be significant in the polluted subtropical boundary layer in summer. With a mean OH recycling probability of about 67 %, global OH is buffered and not sensitive to perturbations by natural or anthropogenic emission changes. Complementary primary and secondary OH formation mechanisms in pristine and polluted environments in the continental and marine troposphere, connected through long-range transport of O3, can maintain stable global OH levels
Abstract. The new Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) describes atmospheric chemistry and meteorological processes in a modular framework, following strict coding standards. It has been coupled to the ECHAM5 general circulation model, which has been slightly modified for this purpose. A 90-layer model version up to 0.01 hPa was used at T42 resolution (~2.8 latitude and longitude) to simulate the lower and middle atmosphere. The model meteorology has been tested to check the influence of the changes to ECHAM5 and the radiation interactions with the new representation of atmospheric composition. A Newtonian relaxation technique was applied in the tropospheric part of the domain to weakly nudge the model towards the analysed meteorology during the period 1998–2005. It is shown that the tropospheric wave forcing of the stratosphere in the model suffices to reproduce the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and major stratospheric warming events leading e.g. to the vortex split over Antarctica in 2002. Characteristic features such as dehydration and denitrification caused by the sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud particles and ozone depletion during winter and spring are simulated accurately, although ozone loss in the lower polar stratosphere is slightly underestimated. The model realistically simulates stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes as indicated by comparisons with satellite and in situ measurements. The evaluation of tropospheric chemistry presented here focuses on the distributions of ozone, hydroxyl radicals, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen compounds. In spite of minor shortcomings, mostly related to the relatively coarse T42 resolution and the neglect of interannual changes in biomass burning emissions, the main characteristics of the trace gas distributions are generally reproduced well. The MESSy submodels and the ECHAM5/MESSy1 model output are available through the internet on request.
Poor air quality is globally the largest environmental health risk. Epidemiological studies have uncovered clear relationships of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter (PM) with adverse health outcomes, including mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Studies of health impacts by aerosols are highly multidisciplinary with a broad range of scales in space and time. We assess recent advances and future challenges regarding aerosol effects on health from molecular to global scales through epidemiological studies, field measurements, health-related properties of PM, and multiphase interactions of oxidants and PM upon respiratory deposition. Global modeling combined with epidemiological exposure-response functions indicates that ambient air pollution causes more than four million premature deaths per year. Epidemiological studies usually refer to PM mass concentrations, but some health effects may relate to specific constituents such as bioaerosols, polycyclic aromatic compounds, and transition metals. Various analytical techniques and cellular and molecular assays are applied to assess the redox activity of PM and the formation of reactive oxygen species. Multiphase chemical interactions of lung antioxidants with atmospheric pollutants are crucial to the mechanistic and molecular understanding of oxidative stress upon respiratory deposition. The role of distinct PM components in health impacts and mortality needs to be clarified by integrated research on various spatiotemporal scales for better evaluation and mitigation of aerosol effects on public health in the Anthropocene.
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