Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected on Jan 30, 2020, in India, the number of cases rapidly increased to 3819 cases including 106 deaths as of 5 April 2020. Taking this into account, in the present work, we are studying a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission fractional-order COVID-19 model for simulating the potential transmission with the thought of individual social response and control measures by the government. The real data available about infectious cases from $14^{th}$ March to $26^{th}$ March 2020 is analysed and accordingly various parameters of the model are estimated or fitted. The Picard successive approximation technique and Banach's fixed point theory have been used for verification of the existence and stability criteria of the model. Numerical computations are done utilizing the iterative Laplace transform method. In the end, we illustrate the obtained results graphically. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effectiveness of preventive measures, predicting future outbreaks and potential control strategies using the mathematical model.
This manuscript deals with fractional differential equations including Caputo-Fabrizio differential operator. The conditions for existence and uniqueness of solutions of fractional initial value problems is established using fixed point theorem and contraction principle, respectively. As an application, the iterative Laplace transform method (ILTM) is used to get an approximate solutions for nonlinear fractional reaction-diffusion equations, namely the Fitzhugh-Nagumo equation and the Fisher equation in the Caputo-Fabrizio sense. The obtained approximate solutions are compared with other available solutions from existing methods by using graphical representations and numerical computations. The results reveal that the proposed method is most suitable in terms of computational cost efficiency, and accuracy which can be applied to find solutions of nonlinear fractional reaction-diffusion equations.
MSC: Primary 26A33; secondary 34A08; 35R11
Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected on 30 January, 2020, in India, the number of cases rapidly increased to 3819 cases including 106 deaths as of 5 April, 2020. Taking this into account, in the present work, we have analysed a Bats–Hosts–Reservoir–People transmission fractional-order COVID-19 model for simulating the potential transmission with the thought of individual response and control measures by the government. The real data available about number of infected cases from 14 March, 2000 to 26 March, 2020 is analysed and, accordingly, various parameters of the model are estimated or fitted. The Picard successive approximation technique and Banach’s fixed point theory have been used for verification of the existence and stability criteria of the model. Further, we conduct stability analysis for both disease-free and endemic equilibrium states. On the basis of sensitivity analysis and dynamics of the threshold parameter, we estimate the effectiveness of preventive measures, predicting future outbreaks and potential control strategies of the disease using the proposed model. Numerical computations are carried out utilising the iterative Laplace transform method and comparative study of different fractional differential operators is done. The impacts of various biological parameters on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is investigated. Finally, we illustrate the obtained results graphically.
We proposed a mathematical model of the coronavirus disease 2019 to investigate the transmission and control mechanism of the disease in Nigeria. Using stability theory of differential equations, the qualitative behavior of model is studied. The pandemic indicator represented by basic reproductive number R 0 is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Local as well as global asymptotic stability conditions for the disease-free equilibrium is obtained which determines the conditions to stabilize the exponential spread of the disease. Further, we examined this model by using Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative operator and existence criteria of solution for the operator is established. We consider the data of reported infection cases from April 1, 2020, till April 30, 2020, and parameterized the model. We have used one of the reliable and efficient method known as iterative Laplace transform to obtain numerical simulations. The impacts of various biological parameters on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is examined. These results are based on different values of the fractional parameter and serve as a control parameter to identify the significant strategies for the control of the disease. In the end, the obtained results are demonstrated graphically to justify our theoretical findings.
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