Simulation of Indian summer monsoon features by latest coupled model of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEPs) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is attempted in its long run. Improvements in the simulation of Indian summer monsoon as compared with previous version (CFSv1) is accessed and areas which still require considerable refinements are introduced. It is found that, spatial pattern of seasonal mean rainfall and wind circulations are more realistic in CFSv2 as compared with CFSv1. Variance and northward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which also contribute to the seasonal mean rainfall are remarkably improved. However, the central Indian dry bias still persists and amplified. Pervasive cold bias in surface (2 m air temperature) as well as in the whole troposphere is further increased in CFSv2. These cold biases may be partly attributed to the lack of model's ability to realistically simulate the ratio of convective and stratiform rainfall. Sea-surface temperature (SST) over the Indian Ocean is underestimated in CFSv2. However, CFSv1 shows east-west dipole structure in the bias. The teleconnection of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in terms of Niño3 SST and monsoon rainfall correlation is more realistic in the latest version of the model. Overall, there are substantial improvements in CFSv2 as compared with CFSv1, but it has to evolve further to realistically simulate the mean and variability of ISMR.

[1] A mechanism of internal variability of Indian summer monsoon through the modulation of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) by land-atmosphere feedback is proposed. Evidence of feedback between surface soil moisture and ISOs is seen in the soil moisture data from GSWP-2 and rainfall data from observations. Using two sets of internal simulation by a regional climate model (RCM), it is shown that internally generated anomalous soil moisture interacts with the following ISO and generates interannual variability. To gain further insight, 27 years of sensitivity experiment by prescribing wet (dry) soil moisture condition during break (active) period along with a control simulation are carried out. The sensitivity experiment reveals the large-scale nature of soil moisture and ISO feedback which takes place through the changes in atmospheric stability by altering lower-level atmospheric conditions. The feedback is inherent to the monsoon system and a part of it acts through the intraseasonal varying memory of soil moisture. The RCM used to test the hypothesis is constrained by one-way interactions at the lateral boundary. Experiments with a much larger domain upheld the findings and hence suggest the true nature of soil moisture and ISO feedback present in the monsoon system.

Based on extensive analysis of observations and a series of climate model experiments, here we establish that slow variations of northern hemispheric extratropical sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies can augment seasonal predictability of the south Asian monsoon. The SST conditions and performance of the south Asian monsoon during 2013 boreal summer months (June-September) led us to hypothesize that the strong extratropical SST anomalies in the North Pacific and North Atlantic in conjunction with weak tropical SST anomalies (weak La Niña) were responsible for the above-normal rainfall over India during 2013. We also argue that the 2013 SST pattern and above-normal monsoon condition are not unique but occurred on several occasions in the past. Further, we show that there is a complementary pattern of strong extratropical SST and weak tropical SST that is associated with below-normal south Asian monsoon rainfall. We also show that the extratropical SST pattern in the Northern Hemisphere is associated with a low-frequency interdecadal mode of variability indicating potential predictability associated with such extratropical SST forcing. Extensive experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model forced by such SST conditions elucidate the mechanism through which the extratropical SSTs influence the Indian monsoon. The SST anomalies affect the north-south temperature gradient and lead to a local displacement of the jet stream, setting up a quasi-stationary wave. Such a stationary wave, in turn, affects the tropospheric temperature (TT) over southern Eurasia, influencing the north-south TT gradient in the region and thereby the Indian monsoon. Our discovery of this additional source of potential predictability together with the fact that the new-generation coupled ocean-atmosphere models are capable of predicting the extratropical SST anomalies brightens the prospect of south Asian monsoon prediction.

Monsoon onset is an inherent transient phenomenon of Indian Summer Monsoon and it was never envisaged that this transience can be predicted at long lead times. Though onset is precipitous, its variability exhibits strong teleconnections with large scale forcing such as ENSO and IOD and hence may be predictable. Despite of the tremendous skill achieved by the state-of-the-art models in predicting such large scale processes, the prediction of monsoon onset variability by the models is still limited to just 2–3 weeks in advance. Using an objective definition of onset in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the skillful prediction of onset variability is feasible under seasonal prediction framework. The better representations/simulations of not only the large scale processes but also the synoptic and intraseasonal features during the evolution of monsoon onset are the comprehensions behind skillful simulation of monsoon onset variability. The changes observed in convection, tropospheric circulation and moisture availability prior to and after the onset are evidenced in model simulations, which resulted in high hit rate of early/delay in monsoon onset in the high resolution model.

[1] Indian Ocean ridges north of the Rodriguez Triple Junction remain poorly explored for seafloor hydrothermal activity, with only two active sites confirmed north of 25°S. We conducted water column surveys and sampling in 2007 and 2009 to search for hydrothermal plumes over a segment of the Carlsberg Ridge. Here we report evidence for two separate vent fields, one near 3°42′N, 63°40′E and another near 3°41.5′N, 63°50′E, on a segment that is apparently sparsely magmatic. Both sites appear to be located on off-axis highs at the top of the southern axial valley wall, at depths of $3600 m or shallower ($1000 m above the valley floor). At the 63°40′E site, plume sampling found local maxima in light scattering, temperature anomaly, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), dissolved Mn, and 3 He. No water samples are available from the 63°50′E site, but it showed robust light-scattering and ORP anomalies at multiple depths, implying multiple sources. ORP anomalies are very short-lived, so the strong signals at both sites suggest that fluid sources lie within a few kilometers or less from the plume sampling locations. Although ultramafic rocks have been recovered near these sites, the light-scattering and dissolved Mn anomalies imply that the plumes do not arise from a system driven solely by exothermic serpentinization (e.g., Lost City). Instead, the source fluids may be a product of both ultramafic and basaltic/gabbroic fluid-rock interaction, similar to the Rainbow and Logatchev fields on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.