Abstract. In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.
Recent seismic events show that urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to seismic damage, which leads to unprecedented levels of risk. Cities are complex systems and as such their analysis requires a good understanding of the interactions between space and the socioeconomic variables characteristic of the inhabitants of urban space. There is a clear need to develop and test detailed models that describe the behavior of these interactions under seismic impact. This article develops an overall vulnerability index to seismic hazard based on a spatial approach applied to Bucharest, Romania, the most earthquake-prone capital in the European Union. The methodology relies on: (1) spatial post-processed socioeconomic data from the 2011 Romanian census through multicriteria analysis; and (2) analytical methods (the Improved Displacement Coefficient Method and custom-defined vulnerability functions) for estimating damage patterns, incorporated in a GIS environment. We computed vulnerability indices for the 128 census tracts of the city. Model sensitivity assessment tested the robustness of spatially identified patterns of building vulnerability in the face of uncertainty in model inputs. The results show that useful seismic vulnerability indices can be obtained through interdisciplinary approaches that enhance less detailed datasets, which leads lead to better targeted mitigation efforts.
<p>Big cities are prone to suffer important losses, both economic and human, in case of a risk occurrence. Bucharest is the most vulnerable European capital to earthquakes due to its exposure, being located about 130 km from the main seismic region of the country &#8211; Vrancea Region, and also due to its high physical and social vulnerability.</p><p>Based on the past experiences and on the present development of the city, there is an urge to find and to develop measures and policies for seismic risk mitigation. The first step in this direction, which is also the aim of the present work, is to assess the current situation regarding the vulnerability of the city and to understand the dimension of the losses throughout the city in case of a major earthquake event.</p><p>In this study we discuss the best locations to deploy shelters which can provide first-aid and temporary residence for those who lost their homes after an earthquake event. Our research is based on estimating the losses at a detailed scale and by knowing the limitations of the infrastructure (including emergency hospitals and roads) and of the public services (like the firefighters, ambulances, police, medical care etc.).</p><p>Social, economic and housing quality criteria were integrated in a multicriteria analysis in order to assess the most vulnerability hotspots at city level and to estimate losses. The results showed the presence of two extended areas, situated in the south-west and the western part of the city, with high vulnerability scores and high potential losses. These two areas were introduced into a new multicriteria analysis for finding suitable locations that can be used as indoor and outdoor shelters.</p><p>Our study is a step forward to increase the preparedness of the population, that will know where to go in case of need. It will also help the authorities that will better allocate their resources and overall mitigate the seismic risk.</p>
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