The distribution of the cosmic convergence field is modelled from first principles using a large deviation principle. The geometry of the past light cone is accounted for by constructing the total weak-lensing signal from contributions of the matter density in thin disk slices. The prediction of this model is successfully tested against numerical simulation with ray tracing, and found to be accurate within at least 5 per cent in the tails at redshift 1 and opening angle of 10 arcmin and even more so with increasing source redshift and opening angle. An accurate analytical approximation to the theory is also provided for practical implementation. The lensing kernel that mixes physical scales along the line-of-sight tends to reduce the domain of validity of this theoretical approach compared to the three dimensional case of cosmic densities in spherical cells. This effect is shown to be avoidable if a nulling procedure is implemented in order to localise the lensing line-of-sight integrations in a tomographic analysis. Accuracy in the tails is thus achieved within a percent for source redshifts between 0.5 and 1.5 and an opening angle of 10 arcmin. Applications to future weak-lensing surveys like Euclid and the specific issue of shape noise are discussed.

Pinning down the total neutrino mass and the dark energy equation of state is a key aim for upcoming galaxy surveys. Weak lensing is a unique probe of the total matter distribution whose non-Gaussian statistics can be quantified by the one-point probability distribution function (PDF) of the lensing convergence. We calculate the convergence PDF on mildly non-linear scales from first principles using large-deviation statistics, accounting for dark energy and the total neutrino mass. For the first time, we comprehensively validate the cosmology-dependence of the convergence PDF model against large suites of simulated lensing maps, demonstrating its percent-level precision and accuracy. We show that fast simulation codes can provide highly accurate covariance matrices, which can be combined with the theoretical PDF model to perform forecasts and eliminate the need for relying on expensive N-body simulations. Our theoretical model allows us to perform the first forecast for the convergence PDF that varies the full set of ΛCDM parameters. Our Fisher forecasts establish that the constraining power of the convergence PDF compares favourably to the two-point correlation function for a Euclid-like survey area at a single source redshift. When combined with a CMB prior from Planck, the PDF constrains both the neutrino mass Mν and the dark energy equation of state w0 more strongly than the two-point correlation function.