Climate plays a central role in coral-reef development, especially in marginal environments. The high-latitude reefs of southeast Florida are currently non-accreting, relict systems with low coral cover. This region also did not support the extensive Late Pleistocene reef development observed in many other locations around the world; however, there is evidence of significant reef building in southeast Florida during the Holocene. Using 146 radiometric ages from reefs extending ~ 120 km along Florida’s southeast coast, we test the hypothesis that the latitudinal extent of Holocene reef development in this region was modulated by climatic variability. We demonstrate that although sea-level changes impacted rates of reef accretion and allowed reefs to backstep inshore as new habitats were flooded, sea level was not the ultimate cause of reef demise. Instead, we conclude that climate was the primary driver of the expansion and contraction of Florida’s reefs during the Holocene. Reefs grew to 26.7° N in southeast Florida during the relatively warm, stable climate at the beginning of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) ~ 10,000 years ago, but subsequent cooling and increased frequency of winter cold fronts were associated with the equatorward contraction of reef building. By ~ 7800 years ago, actively accreting reefs only extended to 26.1° N. Reefs further contracted to 25.8° N after 5800 years ago, and by 3000 years ago reef development had terminated throughout southern Florida (24.5–26.7° N). Modern warming is unlikely to simply reverse this trend, however, because the climate of the Anthropocene will be fundamentally different from the HTM. By increasing the frequency and intensity of both warm and cold extreme-weather events, contemporary climate change will instead amplify conditions inimical to reef development in marginal reef environments such as southern Florida, making them more likely to continue to deteriorate than to resume accretion in the future.

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The Holocene reefs off southeast Florida provide unique insights into the biogeographical and ecological response of western Atlantic coral reefs to past climate change that can be used to evaluate future climate impacts. However, previous studies have focused on millennial-scale change during the stable mid-Holocene, making it difficult to make inferences about the impact of shorter-term variability that is relevant to modern climate warming. Using uranium-series dating of newly discovered subfossil coral rubble deposits, we establish a new high-resolution record of coral community development off southeast Florida during a period of variable climate in the late Holocene. Our results indicate that coral communities dominated by reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. persisted in the nearshore environments off southeast Florida ~75 km north of their primary historical ranges between ~3500 and 1800 years before present. This timing coincides with regional warming at the northern extent of the Atlantic Warm Pool, suggesting a likely link between regional oceanographic climate and the expansion of cold-sensitive reef-building coral communities to the high-latitude reefs off southeast Florida. These findings not only extend the record of coral-reef development in southeast Florida into the late Holocene, but they also have important implications for future range expansions of reef-building coral communities in response to modern climate change.

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