Drawing from ethical concerns raised by communities of machine learning developers and considering predictive analytics’ very short-term predictions, several futures studies techniques are examined to offer some insights about possible bridges between machine learning and foresight. This review develops three main sections: (1) a brief explanation of central concepts, such as big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence, hopefully not too simplistic but readable for larger audiences; (2) a discussion about ethical issues, such as bias, discrimination, and dilemmas in research; and (3) a brief description of how futures studies could address ethical dilemmas derived from different time horizons among machine learning immediate results, forecasting short-term predictions, and foresight long-term scenarios.
In times of crisis, citizens’ support for democracy can depend on how well they think their democracy can address that crisis compared to authoritarian alternatives. Mexico is in the midst of just such a crisis, as its war on drug trafficking organisations has brought an unprecedented rise in violence and, in some areas, posed a direct challenge to the state’s capacity to govern. At the same time, its subnational political landscape ranges from vibrant, multi-party states to those with continued connections to a dominant one-party past. We leverage these variations in subnational political context and levels of drug-related violence to examine how the subnational political context mediates the relationship between a crisis and support for non-democratic alternatives. When faced with a violent shock to the system, public attitudes towards democracy depend in part on one’s experiences with non-democratic alternatives and whether these authoritarian options appear to solve the crisis at hand more effectively.
Resumen Este artículo analiza las razones por las que el tribunal electoral confirma o revoca las multas que impone el ife a los partidos políticos mexicanos, como resultado de la revisión a sus ingresos y gastos. Se confirman parcialmente las expectativas de la literatura sobre política judicial, la cual predice que los tribunales especializados, como el electoral en México, tienen más probabilidades de revocar las decisiones de los organismos especializados que revisan por razones estratégicas. Al analizar 1671 multas impugnadas entre 1997 y 2010, se concluye que aunque los magistrados confirman tres de cada cuatro multas, cuando revocan decisiones del ife se trata de temas visibles como gastos de campaña o cuando las élites políticamente relevantes son las que impugnan.
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