In this article the authors develop a descriptive theory of choice using anticipated emotions. People are assumed to anticipate how they will feel about the outcomes of decisions and use their predictions to guide choice. The authors measure the pleasure associated with monetary outcomes of gambles and offer an account of judged pleasure called decision affect theory. Then they propose a theory of choices between gambles based on anticipated pleasure. People are assumed to choose the option with greater subjective expected pleasure. Similarities and differences between subjective expected pleasure theory and subjective expected utility theory are discussed. Emotions have powerful effects on choice. Our actual feelings of happiness, sadness, and anger both color and shape our decisions. In addition, our imagined feelings of guilt, elation, or regret influence our decisions. In this article we refer to these two influences as experienced emotions and anticipated emotions. Experienced emotions affect many levels of cognitive processing.
How do people feel about the outcomes of risky options? Results from two experiments demonstrate that the emotional reaction to a monetary outcome is not a simple function of the utility of that outcome Emotional responses also depend on probabilities and unobtained outcomes Unexpected outcomes have greater emotional impact than expected outcomes Furthermore any given outcome is less pleasant if an unobtained outcome is better We propose an account of emotional experiences associated with outcomes of decisions called decision affect theory It incorporates utilities expectations and counterfactual comparisons into hedonic responses Finally we show that choices between risky options can be described as the maximization of expected emotional experiences as predicted by decision affect theory That is people choose the risky option for which they expect to feel better on average
The increased incidence of pregnancy loss in pregnant women with TSH levels between 2.5 and 5.0 mIU/liter provides strong physiological evidence to support redefining the TSH upper limit of normal in the first trimester to 2.5 mIU/liter.
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