Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized paleoclimate datasets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based paleotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our paleotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

1. Broad-scale assessments of biodiversity often rely on the use of surrogate taxa, whose reliability has rarely been tested, particularly in freshwater systems. Here we use data from 46 ponds in two regions of the U.K. to explore the performance of macroinvertebrate taxa as surrogates for the rapid assessment of pond biodiversity. For the four dominant taxonomic groups in these ponds (Chironomidae, Coleoptera, Gastropoda and Trichoptera) we explore cross-taxon species richness relationships in each of the two regions, and also determine the degree of concordance between the different taxa in accurately representing the similarity relationships between pond assemblages. 2. Patterns of cross-taxon congruence in species richness were highly variable among taxa and study sites, making the use of a single taxon as a predictor of overall macroinvertebrate species richness problematic. In contrast, all four taxa show >70% congruence with the pattern of community similarity between sites resulting from the entire macroinvertebrate dataset, this result being consistent within and between regions. Canonical correspondence analysis demonstrated that all taxa were related in a similar manner to measured environmental parameters, meaning that limited additional ecological information is gained by including a wider range of pond taxa in rapid site assessment. 3. Single taxonomic groups can, therefore, perform consistently as indicators of community similarity between ponds, and no one taxon dramatically outperforms any other in this respect. The relative merits of the four focal taxa as surrogates for pond invertebrate assemblage composition are discussed with reference to ease of survey, ease of identification and ecological range occupied. 4. It is suggested that Coleoptera have a number of advantages as a surrogate taxon, being diverse, easily sampled, readily identified, taxonomically stable, ecologically well understood and occurring across a wide spectrum of pond types. They are therefore recommended for use as a focal group in rapid pond biodiversity assessments, employing an approach such as ours, which examines patterns of assemblage similarity, rather than species richness alone.

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ABSTRACT1. A high proportion of ponds are temporary in nature, although the biodiversity value of such sites is still poorly recognized. This work explores the plant and macroinvertebrate communities of 76 temporary and fluctuating water bodies in two regions of southern England (Lizard Peninsula, Cornwall and New Forest, Hampshire) that have retained high pond densities. The ecology and conservation status of sites is examined, and comparisons made with ponds elsewhere in England and Wales.2. Lizard and New Forest ponds supported 119 plant and 165 macroinvertebrate species respectively. Patterns of community similarity for plants and macroinvertebrates were highly concordant, taxa being related in a similar manner to measured environmental variables including pond area, depth, pH and water chemistry.3. Patterns of pond occupancy revealed that most species were locally rare, over half occurring in less than 10% of ponds, and less than 10% being recorded from more than 50% of sites. More than 50% of ponds supported at least one nationally rare plant and almost 75% at least one nationally rare macroinvertebrate. These taxa occupied a wide range of pond types in each region, and did not have predictably different ecologies from common species.4. Comparisons with ponds elsewhere in England and Wales revealed that Lizard and New Forest communities are nationally distinct, being most similar to ponds in areas of low intensity agriculture elsewhere in western Britain. Individual ponds in both regions supported more nationally rare taxa, on average, than ponds sampled in the national survey.5. Ponds in the two areas have high conservation value, both regionally and nationally, supporting almost 75% of the global species richness of temporary ponds sampled across England and Wales. Within each region, many taxa are found in relatively few sites, and effective conservation of pond biodiversity will require a regional management approach.

This paper presents the results of a high-resolution Late-glacial chironomid stratigraphy from Hawes Water, a small carbonate lake in northern Lancashire. The samples were from a core taken from the terrestrialised margin of the present lake, which represents an intermediate depth between the true littoral and the profundal. The chironomid assemblage showed a high degree of sensitivity to both broad-scale and short-term temperature changes. Comparison with an existing proxy temperature record ( 18 O) for the site confirmed the presence of four temperature inversions within the Late-glacial Interstadial. A mean July air temperature inference model, derived from acid, soft-water lakes in Norway and Svalbard, was applied to the data. Despite the absence of carbonate lakes within the Norwegian training set, there was a close similarity between trends in estimated July air temperature and the 18 O trace, with a particularly strong correspondence in the periods of clay deposition. This suggests that this model is highly robust. The inferred maximum Interstadial temperature was 13.4 C, dropping initially to 7.5 C in the Loch Lomond Stadial. Temperatures reach a maximum of nearly 10 C in this period, cool for a short period before rising rapidly to 13.2 C at the start of the Holocene. These temperatures are similar to but slightly higher than those estimated for Whitrig Bog, southeast Scotland, and lower than those inferred from coleopteran-based models for sites in South Wales.

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A lacustrine carbonate sequence from Hawes Water, Lancashire, UK, has been studied using stable isotopic, lithological, pollen and mineral magnetic analysis. The data reveal four abrupt climatic oscillations in the Late-glacial Interstadial leading up to the onset of the Loch Lomond Stadial. The data also point to climatic warming relatively early within the stadial, ca. 12 500 GRIP yr, prior to the onset of the Holocene. The oxygen isotope record is taken as a signature of climate forcing against which the response of the lake-system can be monitored. By adopting this approach it is revealed that the response of the biological system to the rapid climatic oscillations is nonlinear and primarily a function of the antecedent conditions. A significant end-Devensian isotopic excursion (A) is matched by only minor changes in the cold-adapted floras and faunas. During the warmer interstadial, the response of the biological ecosystem (events B-D) is clearly influenced by thresholds: major changes in the catchment vegetation associated with relatively minor oscillations in the isotopic signature. The stratigraphical patterns reveal significant lag effects between the onset of climate deterioration and resulting changes in vegetation.