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Disruptive technologies, which are caused by the cellular evolution including the Internet of Things (IoT), have significantly contributed data traffic to the mobile telecommunication network in the era of Industry 4.0. These technologies cause erroneous predictions prompting mobile operators to upgrade their network, which leads to revenue loss. Besides, the inaccuracy of network prediction also creates a bottleneck problem that affects the performance of the telecommunication network, especially on the mobile backhaul. We propose a new technique to predict more accurate data traffic. This research used a univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model combined with a new disruptive formula. Another model, called a disruptive formula, uses a judgmental approach based on four variables: Political, Economic, Social, Technological (PEST), cost, time to market, and market share. The disruptive formula amplifies the ARIMA calculation as a new combination formula from the judgmental and statistical approach. The results show that the disruptive formula combined with the ARIMA model has a low error in mobile data forecasting compared to the conventional ARIMA. The conventional ARIMA shows the average mobile data traffic to be 49.19 Mb/s and 156.93 Mb/s for the 3G and 4G, respectively; whereas the ARIMA with disruptive formula shows more optimized traffic, reaching 56.72 Mb/s and 199.73 Mb/s. The higher values in the ARIMA with disruptive formula are closest to the prediction of the mobile data forecast. This result suggests that the combination of statistical and computational approach provide more accurate prediction method for the mobile backhaul networks.

This paper aims to characterize the profile of the prospective IoT market in Indonesia. The primary data were collected in July 2018 through a comprehensive survey that sampled respondents representing the whole Indonesian population. The questionnaire was developed by extracting the 4 (four) main issues regarding which the potential users of the IoT technology may have concerns, i.e., willingness to use the IoT services, concerns related to rejection and worries about the IoT, the characteristics of the IoT hardware, and perceptions about the role of the IoT within the existing system. The results of the survey were analyzed to capture the profile of the prospective IoT market, and the strategic implications of the findings were considered. Several interesting results were found, ranging from answering the common question of what kinds of the IoT services are most anticipated to answering the delicate question of how the Indonesian people perceive the disruptive force that the IoT technology may exert. The contribution of this research is that it can be used as an initial guide or reference for regulators, the government and the IoT firms that will begin to deploy services in Indonesia. IoT, Internet of Things, Indonesia, developing country, market, technology. INDEX TERMS