Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature‐dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900–2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%–93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%–43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%–64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up‐to‐date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.
Global climate change is expected to have major impacts on biodiversity. Marine turtles have temperature-dependent sex determination, and many populations produce highly femalebiased offspring sex ratios, a skew likely to increase further with global warming. We looked at one of the world's largest green turtle rookeries, in West Africa, to assess the population's primary sex ratio and resilience to climate change. In 2013 and 2014, we deployed dataloggers recording nest (n=101) and sand (n=30) temperatures, and identified hatchling sex (n=131) by histological examination of gonads. A logistic curve was fitted to the data, to allow predictions of sex ratio across habitats and through the nesting season. The population-specific pivotal temperature was 29.4ºC, and both sexes were produced within incubation temperatures from 27.6ºC to 31.4ºC: transitional range of temperatures (TRT). Primary sex ratio changed from male to female dominated across relatively small temporal and spatial scales, but was overall balanced. We estimated an exceptionally high male hatchling production of 47.7% (95% CI: 36.7-58.3%) and 44.5% (95% CI: 33.8-55.4%) in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Both the temporal and spatial variation in incubation conditions, and the wide range of the TRT, suggest resilience and potential for adaptation to climate change, if the present nesting habitat remains unchanged. These findings underline the importance of assessing site-specific parameters to understand populations' response to climate change, particularly with regard to identifying rookeries with high male hatchling production that may be key for the future conservation of sea turtles, under projected global warming scenarios.
Vultures constitute an important functional group in many ecosystems, providing crucial ecosystem services both in natural and humanized environments. These scavengers are facing massive declines worldwide, but in several African countries virtually nothing is known on populations’ status and threats, hampering the development of adequate conservation strategies. In Guinea-Bissau, globally important populations of Hooded Necrosyrtes monachus and African white-backed vultures Gyps africanus were recently reported. Using the country as a study area, we aim to characterize human-vulture interactions in West Africa applying a multidisciplinary approach. We assessed the status and distribution of vulture populations using data from 1711 km of roadside transects, examined predictors of their distribution, and produced a nationwide population estimate for the Hooded Vulture, using an innovative method based on the relationship between the size of human population in settlements and vulture numbers. We conducted 47 stakeholder interviews to assess perceived roles played by vultures, and to investigate potential anthropogenic threats. Hooded vultures were strongly associated with high human population densities, whereas no relation was found between African white-backed and Rüppell’s vultures and any of the tested predictors, which included cattle density, precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, among others. We estimate a national population of 43347 Hooded vultures, the largest population reported in the species range. Respondents were generally aware of the services provided by vultures, especially waste and carcass removal, including in urban areas. Hunting for witchcraft and traditional medicine was the most frequently recognised threat, while poisoning was ranked as having the highest impact. We hypothesise that poisoning-related mortality may be affecting African white-backed and Rüppell’s vultures’ distribution and explain their scarcity in apparently highly suitable habitats. Our results suggest a mutualistic rather than a commensalistic relationship between vultures and humans, with important implications for designing and implementing conservation strategies.
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