Culling badgers to control the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) between this wildlife reservoir and cattle has been widely debated. Industry‐led culling began in Somerset and Gloucestershire between August and November 2013 to reduce local badger populations. Industry‐led culling is not designed to be a randomized and controlled trial of the impact of culling on cattle incidence. Nevertheless, it is important to monitor the effects of the culling and, taking the study limitations into account, perform a cautious evaluation of the impacts. A standardized method for selecting areas matched to culling areas in factors found to affect cattle TB risk has been developed to evaluate the impact of badger culling on cattle TB incidence. The association between cattle TB incidence and badger culling in the first 2 years has been assessed. Descriptive analyses without controlling for confounding showed no association between culling and TB incidence for Somerset, or for either of the buffer areas for the first 2 years since culling began. A weak association was observed in Gloucestershire for Year 1 only. Multivariable analysis adjusting for confounding factors showed that reductions in TB incidence were associated with culling in the first 2 years in both the Somerset and Gloucestershire intervention areas when compared to areas with no culling (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.79, 95% CI: 0.72–0.87, p < .001 and IRR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.34–0.51, p < .001, respectively). An increase in incidence was associated with culling in the 2‐km buffer surrounding the Somerset intervention area (IRR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.09–1.75, p = .008), but not in Gloucestershire (IRR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.77–1.07, p = .243). As only 2 intervention areas with 2 years of data are available for analysis, and the biological cause–effect relationship behind the statistical associations is difficult to determine, it would be unwise to use these findings to develop generalizable inferences about the effectiveness of the policy at present.

The objective was to measure the association between badger culling and bovine tuberculosis (TB) incidents in cattle herds in three areas of England between 2013–2017 (Gloucestershire and Somerset) and 2015–2017 (Dorset). Farming industry-selected licensed culling areas were matched to comparison areas. A TB incident was detection of new Mycobacterium bovis infection (post-mortem confirmed) in at least one animal in a herd. Intervention and comparison area incidence rates were compared in central zones where culling was conducted and surrounding buffer zones, through multivariable Poisson regression analyses. Central zone incidence rates in Gloucestershire (Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.34 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.39, p < 0.001) and Somerset (IRR 0.63 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.69, p < 0.001) were lower and no different in Dorset (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.27, p = 0.168) than comparison central zone rates. The buffer zone incidence rate was lower for Gloucestershire (IRR 0.64, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.70, p < 0.001), no different for Somerset (IRR 0.97, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.16, p = 0.767) and lower for Dorset (IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.54, p < 0.001) than comparison buffer zone rates. Industry-led culling was associated with reductions in cattle TB incidence rates after four years but there were variations in effects between areas.

DisclaimerThe University of Gloucestershire has obtained warranties from all depositors as to their title in the material deposited and as to their right to deposit such material.The University of Gloucestershire makes no representation or warranties of commercial utility, title, or fitness for a particular purpose or any other warranty, express or implied in respect of any material deposited.The University of Gloucestershire makes no representation that the use of the materials will not infringe any patent, copyright, trademark or other property or proprietary rights.The University of Gloucestershire accepts no liability for any infringement of intellectual property rights in any material deposited but will remove such material from public view pending investigation in the event of an allegation of any such infringement. Please cite this article as: Broughan

A mathematical method for estimating the endemic status of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle in England and Wales has been developed. 6.25km(2) hexagonal cells were used as the base resolution. Maps were produced for overlapping two-year periods spanning 2001/03 to 2009/11. Distance from a farm to the ten nearest 'Officially Tuberculosis Free status - Withdrawn' incidents within the same time period was measured. Endemic areas were defined as those hexagons containing farms where the 3rd nearest incident occurred within 7km. Temporal spread of endemic bTB was estimated by creating a contour map displaying the spread of endemic bTB over the two-year periods, and using boundary displacement to calculate the rate of spread across each hexagon. A rate was obtained for ∼2300 cells and varied between 0.04km and 15.9km per year (median=3.3km per year). This work will enable further analysis of the factors associated with this expansion.

DisclaimerThe University of Gloucestershire has obtained warranties from all depositors as to their title in the material deposited and as to their right to deposit such material.The University of Gloucestershire makes no representation or warranties of commercial utility, title, or fitness for a particular purpose or any other warranty, express or implied in respect of any material deposited.The University of Gloucestershire makes no representation that the use of the materials will not infringe any patent, copyright, trademark or other property or proprietary rights.The University of Gloucestershire accepts no liability for any infringement of intellectual property rights in any material deposited but will remove such material from public view pending investigation in the event of an allegation of any such infringement. PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR TEXT.This is a peer-reviewed, post-print (final draft post-refereeing) version of the following published document: Enticott, G. and Maye, Damian and Carmody, P. and Naylor, R. and Ward, K. and Hinchliffe, S. and Wint, W. and Alexander, N. and Elgin, R. and Ashton, A. and Upton, P. and Nicholson, R. and Goodchild, T. and Brunton, L. and Broughan, J. (2015) Farming on the edge: farmer attitudes to bovine tuberculosis in newly endemic areas. Veterinary Record, 177 (17 We recommend you cite the published (post-print) version The URL for the published version is not yet available. DisclaimerThe University of Gloucestershire has obtained warranties from all depositors as to their title in the material deposited and as to their right to deposit such material.The University of Gloucestershire makes no representation or warranties of commercial utility, title, or fitness for a particular purpose or any other warranty, express or implied in respect of any material deposited.The University of Gloucestershire makes no representation that the use of the materials will not infringe any patent, copyright, trademark or other property or proprietary rights.The University of Gloucestershire accepts no liability for any infringement of intellectual property rights in any material deposited but will remove such material from public view pending investigation in the event of an allegation of any such infringement. PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR TEXT.1 Acknowledgements: This research was funded by Defra (project code SE3045). We would like to thank the farmers and vets that participated in the research; Alison Prosser (AHVLA) for data support; and Rosie Sallis and Jemma Aston (AHVLA) for project management, and Sara Downs, Amie Adkin and Colin Birch (AHVLA) for additional support. Thanks to the SE3045 project board for their contribution to the project. Farming on the Edge: Farmer Attitudes to Bovine Tuberculosis in Newly Endemic Areas Authors Post Print. Full paper reference: AbstractDefra's recent strategy to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB) establishes three spatial zones: High and Low Risk Areas (HRA and LRA), and an area referred to as 'the Edge', which marks the areas where infection is...