The predictions of gyrokinetic and gyrofluid simulations of ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) instability and turbulence in tokamak plasmas as well as some tokamak plasma thermal transport models, which have been widely used for predicting the performance of the proposed ITER tokamak, are compared. These comparisons provide information on effects of differences in the physics content of the various models and on the fusion-relevant figures of merit of plasma performance predicted by the models. Many of the comparisons are undertaken for a simplified plasma model and geometry which is an idealization of the plasma conditions and geometry in a DIII-D H-mode experiment. Most of the models show good agreements in their predictions and assumptions for the linear growth rates and frequencies. There are some differences associated with different equilibria. However, there are significant differences in the transport levels between the models. The causes of some of the differences are examined in some detail, with particular attention to numerical convergence in the turbulence simulations (with respect to simulation mesh size, system size and, for particle-based simulations, the particle number). The implications for predictions of fusion plasma performance are also discussed.

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A fixed combination of theory-based transport models, called the Multi-Mode Model, is used in the BALDUR [C. E. Singer et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 49, 275 (1988)] transport simulation code to predict the temperature and density profiles in tokamaks. The choice of the Multi-Mode Model has been guided by the philosophy of using the best transport theories available for the various modes of turbulence that dominate in different parts of the plasma. The Multi-Mode model has been found to provide a better match to temperature and density profiles than any of the other theory-based models currently available. A description and partial derivation of the Multi-Mode Model is presented, together with three new examples of simulations of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) [K. M. McGuire et al., Phys. Plasmas 2, 2176 (1995)]. The first simulation shows the strong effect of recycling on the ion temperature profile in TFTR supershot simulations. The second simulation explores the effect of a plasma current ramp—where the plasma energy content changes slowly on the energy confinement time scale. The third simulation shows that the Multi-Mode Model reproduces the experimentally measured profiles when tritium is used as the hydrogenic isotope in L-mode (low confinement mode) plasmas.

Time-dependent integrated predictive modelling is carried out using the PTRANSP code to predict fusion power and parameters such as alpha particle density and pressure in ITER H-mode plasmas. Auxiliary heating by negative ion neutral beam injection and ion-cyclotron heating of He 3 minority ions are modelled, and the GLF23 transport model is used in the prediction of the evolution of plasma temperature profiles. Effects of beam steering, beam torque, plasma rotation, beam current drive, pedestal temperatures, sawtooth oscillations, magnetic diffusion and accumulation of He ash are treated self-consistently. Variations in assumptions associated with physics uncertainties for standard base-line DT H-mode plasmas (with I p = 15 MA, B TF = 5.3 T and Greenwald fraction = 0.86) lead to a range of predictions for DT fusion power P DT and quasi-steady state fusion Q DT (≡P DT /P aux ). Typical predictions assuming P aux = 50-53 MW yield P DT = 250-720 MW and Q DT = 5-14. In some cases where P aux is ramped down or shut off after initial flat-top conditions, quasi-steady Q DT can be considerably higher, even infinite. Adverse physics assumptions such as the existence of an inward pinch of the helium ash and an ash recycling coefficient approaching unity lead to very low values for P DT . Alternative scenarios with different heating and reduced performance regimes are also considered including plasmas with only H or D isotopes, DT plasmas with toroidal field reduced 10% or 20% and discharges with reduced beam voltage. In full-performance D-only discharges, tritium burn up is predicted to generate central tritium densities up to 10 16 m −3 and DT neutron rates up to 5 × 10 16 s −1 , compared with the DD neutron rates of 6 × 10 17 s −1 . Predictions with the toroidal field reduced 10% or 20% below the planned 5.3 T and keeping the same q 98 , Greenwald fraction and β n indicate that the fusion yield P DT and Q DT will be lower by about a factor of two (scaling as B 3.5 ).

Predictive models are developed for the temperature at the top at the edge of type 1 ELMy (edge localized mode) H-mode (high-confinement mode) plasmas. Theory-motivated models are used for the pedestal width and pressure gradient, while the pedestal density is obtained from experimental data in this study. The pedestal pressure gradient is assumed to be limited by the ballooning mode instability and is expressed in terms of the magnetic shear and geometrical factors. The effect of the bootstrap current, which reduces the magnetic shear in the steep pressure gradient region at the edge of the H-mode plasma, is included in the determination of the magnetic shear. Approaches for calculating the magnetic shear, combined with proposed models for the pedestal width, are used to determine the pedestal temperature. The computed pedestal temperatures are compared with more than 500 measured pedestal temperatures for type 1 ELMy H-mode discharges in four tokamaks. Some of the uncertainties in these results are discussed, and directions for future work to improve edge pedestal scalings are described.